Ash 🐶🐱🦝🐝🐢🦜🐑

Posted Thursday, August 14, 2025

4mo

ISTJ

Capricorn

2

1

A Faulty Predictive model, the source of much human suffering.

(not finished but I tire of writing) 1. At our core we often hold a results based, assumption that our personal integrity should be respected. It includes how the world aught treat us, how we should feel and what we should be capable of or have in life. Its deeper than just a belief, our world model informs our predictive model as to what we can expect from life. We are conditioned by society to feel like this includes to be safe from harm, treated with care as a person, and not be used as a tool, it's an idea built on the moral rights and entitlements ideals we hope for as people, projected onto the universe and nature at large. A view of guaranteed integrity is a fragile and easily broken model, and our predictions will inevitably misalign with our real journey, this is a potential danger to our mental and emotional wellbeing because something interesting happens when our predictions and reality don't line up. Why do we promote this guaranteed integrity model? while fragile, is incredibly cognitively efficient. It provides a feeling of comfort because it simplifies the world into a predictable, morally just place. It requires very little mental energy to run. We cling to it not just because it's comforting, but because it feels easy and puts everything into a structured order. 2. Here is where it gets interesting. When reality brutally violates this core assumption we get a catastrophic prediction error all the way up the chain, the knowledge structures built upon our model are undermined, doubted and weakened, leading to collapse and uncertainty about the world, the disparities in trajectory of our previously trusted psychological worldview vs reality is experienced as a violent tearing, and a chaotic discordance that we call suffering. The triggers can be from anything: chemical effects, physical harm, being mistreated/judged unfavorably or not being capable of the standards we presume are a given for humans, anything that contradicts our predictive model. 3. The suffering is the agony falling into a world where you no longer know the rules. It's the horror of navigating without a map, where your fundamental tool for making sense of anything has evaporated, from an evolution based standpoint it makes sense why the body correlates pain alongside this, it is an important structure for survival and the pain prompts us to give high priority to fixing our predictive model. A widening fork between the world model and the prevailing raw unexplained suffering sets off alarm bells to the conscious mind as it is not the harmonic comfort we are use to. It's role now in light of the extreme intensity, is to respond, specifically to create stability, resolve the psychological inconsistency, felt agony, protect knowledge structures, and prevent the predictive model from shattering. 4. The fastest way is to create a reason or narrative in alignment with the pain to bridge between the expectation and the reality. Often in our desperation we initiate an emergency assumption of fault to one of 3 things to quickly structure the chaos and protect our predictive model, this unfortunately distorts our view toward externals and away from the data that could help us correct our world models problems. By outsources the cause of its own suffering by definition, blame perceptions are the declaration that the power to determine one's well-being lies outside of oneself. This isn't just a distortion, it is a fundamental abdication of personal agency. 5. By focusing on the perceived externals the perception puts us in a pressured situation of disempowerment and helplessness. This blame perspective leverages ourvpain to projection towards something other, toward others, inwardly toward the self, or to the world. This preserves the faulty predictive model but at the cost of distortion of truth which is that our model was wrong, now the pain twists with cascading perceptions and stories into emotions of anger, vengeance, resentment, or self blame, victimised injustices, and worthlessness, the narratives are a worldview patch of betrayal which also intensifies the pain. The mind, having adopted a simple explanation of blame, will now unconsciously filter all incoming data to confirm this new rule. It will actively seek evidence of betrayal and ignore evidence of goodwill, these parts add up into potentially more overarching worldviews life is unfair or people in general are treacherous. This process makes the overall worldview more rigid, brittle, and paranoid. 6. Envy is the narrative of Life's Betrayal. The mind concludes that its integrity is being violated because life is fundamentally unfair, not because one expected only positive things but because life is personally against them. A perceived lack in oneself, when compared to another, becomes the evidence for this story, and other people become painful reminders of this injustice. The inability to endure this pain leads to cascading predictive errors resulting in potential new worldview where life and the world are monster-like enemies of self who exist to torture or punish us undeservingly. 7. Alternatively Jealousy is the narrative of Personal abandonment. The mind concludes that its integrity has been or will be violated because people or a specific person will abandon or betray it by breaking the rigid sacred rules of the predictive model, it's not seen that the predictive model is wrong instead people are seen as morally bankrupt, maybe not even human. The perception of a threat becomes the catalyst for a defensive story of possession, objectifying other, and entitling devaluing and or controlling them to protect its own integrity. Repeated violations one may form a world view that people are an extention of our integrity and thus entitling us control over persons to protect and proove it's right. 8. In contrast a person living without this constant violation, or someone willing to meet their pain as it is and seek the truth of their mind without need to create a story has little reason to generate the negative world viewed about other being the cause. perception becomes not a tool for explaining away but rather for self exploration on how to deal with the pain, perhaps seeking the root causes of the pain and mitigating more pain in future for oneself, it becomes a way to correct the fault in one's own worldview, but rarely does one get through life without these violations so the solution must be to proactively create a new model. 9. The faulty model's rigid agreement is an implicit, unexamined demand placed upon reality. It's a set of rules the universe and other people are expected to follow, without their consent and unable to be ensure. The new model in contrast, must operates on explicit, conscious commitments made by the self to oneself. Lines are made for us not to cross, something that we can manage and ensure ourselves 10. Thinking about a more robust predictive model I think it might go something like this. We no longer worry about moral agents anymore, our morals and principles are for us to follow and us alone, not to blanket the universe beyond us. Interpreting events vecomes stripped of presumed intent. We focus on what we can control so Integrity is defined by the quality of one's own choices and responses, regardless of what the world does, our lines are made for us not to cross, not for others. Security is built through proactive discernment and adaptation to presented data to guide us in what to do with it, not that harm won't happen but that it is up to us to navigate the world to avoid putting ourselves in situations where violations are likely (physically but also mentally navigating our own perceptions and emotions for the good). We move from who is at fault, to what data is useful as signs to select a principled response. With proactive discernment the primary investment is into reading reality, people and situations before forming deep connections, conclusions or self bound contracts (agreements and belief), and developing a wide range of coping skills and flexible responses. When a potential threat arises, it is seen as a sign or potential red flag, invaluable corrective feedback. This leads to either a principled action, such as seeking clarification, adapting one's strategy, creating distance, or ending a connection cleanly, or it's a sign that your model needs a minor, intelligent update. Combined with being willing to view pain as it is without making stories, together all of these prevent the generation of blame narratives. Summary Reality's violation of an expectation, causing raw, unbearable suffering The creation of a narrative to assign blame and give a reason for the suffering without giving time to psychologically understand, seeking truth is about quickly filing the gap in understanding for closure not truth. These blame oriented explanations twist into emotions that reinforce similar negative perceptions increasing and locking in extreme emotions and worldviews until one loses their humanity. A better model focuses less on who, and more on honour and principles acting, it uses proactive discernment to gather data and intelligently guide behaviour principally to mitigate coming in contact with violations or responding to them maturely When this resilient model encounters a violation, the pain of the event is still real, but it is a damage report and prudence allows time for understanding the systems failure and to rewrite or update the code we operate on. The response is not a desperate reaction, but a protocol: analyze the data and enact a response that is aligned with one's core principles _____ More notes Another way of thinking about the garunteed integrity model (the fragile one) the other is meant to become a part of your own system, it's a fusion model that hopes for sameness, a predictable variable that confirms our own system which includes our views, our worth and ensures our safety. The others independent actions, unpredictibility, thoughts, desires, and actions represent a potential for the catastrophic prediction error, aka the fusion to break, the threat of abandonment or betrayal that could shatter the model. It's a bit like a marriage, where to seperate things are seen as one soul, the politics of fusion model is to punish, manipulate or contol the the other back into line when perceived deliniation from the rules occures and it becomes a source of desperate, anxious project of control and possession trying to keep the external in alignment with the system. (edited)